Tallahassee, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

519
FXUS62 KTAE 151908
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
308 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

...New NEAR TERM, AVIATION, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE
WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

Patchy fog is likely until around 8 AM ET/7 AM CT Friday morning,
with skies turning partly to mostly sunny by late morning, as low
temperatures range from the mid-60s to around 70F. A hot air mass
will continue to overspread the region on Friday as ridging builds
aloft. Based on temperature trends today, have blended toward the
75th percentile of guidance on Friday, with highs in the lower to
middle 90s away from the Gulf Coast. The daily record high at TLH
on Friday 5/16 is 95F set in 1962, and that is in jeopardy, with
the latest probabilistic guidance showing a 50% chance of at least
tying the record. Stay tuned! The West-Southwest 850 hPa flow will
aid in turbulent mixing Friday afternoon, which will tend to drop
dew points into the lower to middle 60s away from the Gulf coast
around the time of max heating. This would limit max heat indices/
apparent temperatures to the middle to upper 90s. Otherwise, a dry
day is on tap. Despite nice weather, a high risk of rip currents
will continue for the Bay, Walton, and Gulf County beaches. Make
sure to heed the beach flags and advice of beach safety officials.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

An upper level trough will pass through the eastern US well north
of the forecast area but this feature will drag a weakening cold
front into the deep south. While much of the area will be quite
dry, and the front likely won`t reach the forecast area, a few
isolated showers and possibly a rumble of thunder could enter the
forecast Saturday afternoon. If we squeeze out any showers, it
would mostly likely be across our southeast Alabama counties and
northeast into some of our northern most counties of Quitman,
Randolph, and Early counties and locations east-northeast of
them.

With dry conditions forecast, temperatures will likely be the
hottest of the upcoming warm spell. Widespread mid-90s are
forecast across the entirety of the forecast region except for
perhaps areas within 10 to 20 miles of the coast where south and
southwesterly seabreezes will keep conditions cooler and in the
upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

The front from Saturday continues to weaken and stall but a
remnant boundary, some low-level moisture, hot temperatures, and
seabreezes might be enough to squeeze out a few isolated to
scattered thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon across our Georgia
and southeast Alabama counties. From Monday through Tuesday, expect
mostly dry and hot conditions to continue as upper level ridging
becomes reestablished over the deep south. By the middle of next
week, ensembles are suggesting a little break in the heat as a
trough swings through the south. This would also bring a return to
scattered showers and storms to the area in the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

MVFR cigs linger into the late aftn at ECP. Southwest winds
around 10 kts with gusts 15-20 kts until sunset. IFR cigs will
overspread the terminals 06-09Z, except VLD with a period of
IFR cigs/vsby after 09Z. For the remainder of the terminals,
a brief period lower cigs/vsbys further into IFR and possibly
LIFR generally 09-12Z, before gradually lifting through IFR
and MVFR cigs, with a return to VFR around 15Z.
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

High pressure will build over the marine zone leading to somewhat
favorable boating conditions with seas around 2-3 feet and
southwesterly winds around 10 kts. The afternoon sea breeze will
kick up each afternoon, boosting winds to nearly 15 kts along
nearshore waters (out to 20 nautical miles). Dry weather is
expected to continue for the next several days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

A period of mainly dry weather is expected over the next several
days with highs in the lower to middle 90s away from the Gulf Coast.
Minimum afternoon RH will dip into the mid-30s to mid-40s over the
next couple of days, with southwest winds locally enhanced closer to
the coast due to the seabreeze. The main fire weather concern will
be dispersions, which could possibly be high on Friday over parts of
Southeast AL and Southwest GA, and are likely to be high on Saturday
over much of the region away from the Gulf coast. Meanwhile, maximum
heat indices/apparent temperatures will be in the mid-90s to around
100 each day.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

One river, the Choctawhatchee River, will crest in Action Stage
over the next few days. No significant rainfall is expected for
the extended period, resulting in no flooding concerns.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   68  94  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   72  84  72  86 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        69  91  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
Albany        69  93  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      68  95  68  96 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    65  89  66  89 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  71  83  72  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ108-112-
     114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for GMZ735.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs